ELIZA

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324223 occurrences (No.64 in the rank) during 5 years in the PubMed. [no cache] 500 found

340) Previously, a discrete collection of plausible scenarios was identified but with no further indication of which of these are more plausible.

--- ABSTRACT ---

PMID:23886677 DOI:10.1177/0272989X13493143

2015 Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making

* Calibration of complex models through Bayesian evidence synthesis: a demonstration and tutorial.

- Decision-analytic models must often be informed using data that are only indirectly related to the main model parameters. The authors outline how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to calibrate the parameters of a complex model. A graphical model is built to represent how observed data are generated from statistical models with unknown parameters and how those parameters are related to quantities of interest for decision making. This forms the basis of an algorithm to estimate a posterior probability distribution, which represents the updated state of evidence for all unknowns given all data and prior beliefs. This process calibrates the quantities of interest against data and, at the same time, propagates all parameter uncertainties to the results used for decision making. To illustrate these methods, the authors demonstrate how a previously developed Markov model for the progression of human papillomavirus (HPV-16) infection was rebuilt in a Bayesian framework. Transition probabilities between states of disease severity are inferred indirectly from cross-sectional observations of prevalence of HPV-16 and HPV-16-related disease by age, cervical cancer incidence, and other published information. Previously, a discrete collection of plausible scenarios was identified but with no further indication of which of these are more plausible. Instead, the authors derive a Bayesian posterior distribution, in which scenarios are implicitly weighted according to how well they are supported by the data. In particular, we emphasize the appropriate choice of prior distributions and checking and comparison of fitted models.

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(2)54 in	(12)7 on	(22)3 during	(32)2 five
(3)38 null	(13)6 with	(23)3 factors	(33)2 for
(4)24 by	(14)5 between	(24)3 several	(34)2 regulation
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(6)19 the	(16)5 two	(26)2 14	(36)2 themes
(7)18 a	(17)4 four	(27)2 4	(37)2 through
(8)12 using	(18)4 including	(28)2 are
(9)10 that	(19)4 which	(29)2 at
(10)8 from	(20)3 along	(30)2 but

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--- WordNet output for identified --- =>確認飛行物体;略:IFO Overview of verb identify The verb identify has 6 senses (first 6 from tagged texts) 1. (32) identify, place -- (recognize as being; establish the identity of someone or something; "She identified the man on the 'wanted' poster") 2. (7) name, identify -- (give the name or identifying characteristics of; refer to by name or some other identifying characteristic property; "Many senators were named in connection with the scandal"; "The almanac identifies the auspicious months") 3. (6) identify -- (consider (oneself) as similar to somebody else; "He identified with the refugees") 4. (4) identify -- (conceive of as united or associated; "Sex activity is closely identified with the hypothalamus") 5. (2) identify, discover, key, key out, distinguish, describe, name -- (identify as in botany or biology, for example) 6. (2) identify -- (consider to be equal or the same; "He identified his brother as one of the fugitives") Overview of adj identified The adj identified has 1 sense (first 1 from tagged texts) 1. (1) identified -- (having the identity known or established; "the identified bodies were released for burial") --- WordNet end ---